谢韦爷邀。最近弄CFA没什么时间答题，随便写两句吧，有时间再来逐句逐段分析（在没有权限底稿的情况下，可能会有一些不当之处，请海涵）。
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先说几点最重要的：
1. 本次评级性质为unsolicited（非请求评级），即不收取被评级方任何费用情况下的主动评级（即使大家要质疑S&P的independence，这种情况下的conflict最低），与特斯拉之间没有任何协议；
2. 本次评级针对的是特斯拉的unsecured
convertible senior notes（$920
million 0.25% due 2019；$1.38
billion 1.25% due 2021; $660 million 0% due 2018），请不要与特斯拉的其他corporate bonds credit ratings和corporate credit ratings混为一谈！（换句话说这次只是一个特定种类的notes评级，不是特斯拉公司信用评级！！！）
3. 本次评级给特斯拉unsecured
convertible senior notes的本币外币评级都是B-（本币指的是美元，外币指的是如果特斯拉发行比如欧元unsecured convertible senior notes，评级也会为B-），展望都是”稳定“；
4. 标普给了特斯拉的unsecured
convertible senior notes第四级unsolicited
recovery ratings (“4”)，这个很重要，因为rating 4表明了标普预计如果违约，noteholders平均只能拿回30%-50%的本金；
5. 给于”稳定“展望是因为标普预计特斯拉会在未来12月内继续保持其gross margin上的不断提升，主要因为特斯拉S型的市场需求旺盛，特斯拉销售还有空间去满足这些需求。
————————————————-以下为标普报告原文（简版）————————————————
Our
“vulnerable” business risk profile assessment incorporates Tesla’s
narrow product focus, concentrated production footprint, small scale relative
to its larger automotive peers, limited visibility on the long-term demand for
its products, and limited track record in handling execution risks that could arise
in managing high volume parallel production.
The business risk
profile is also constrained by Tesla’s niche and independent market position,
compared to its significantly larger and stronger peers, and its very limited
product range and operating diversity. We expect global competition for
alternative fuel vehicles to intensify over the next few years as competitors
penetrate this market through improved products. We believe there is
considerable uncertainty in Tesla’s long-term prospects and believe that the
company is less likely (compared to larger, more established automakers) to
successfully adapt to competitive and technological displacement risks over the
medium to long term.
Mitigating factors
include improving brand recognition, ongoing cost structure improvements with
higher unit sales leading to better absorption of fixed costs and lower
logistics costs, as well as Tesla’s ability to command a price premium through
its Model S product, design, and technology.
“The stable outlook
reflects our view that Tesla will continue its recent improvement in gross
margins and generate positive cash flow from operations in 2014 while
maintaining sufficient liquidity despite its large growth-related cash
investments,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Nishit Madlani.
We could lower the
rating if it appears likely that the projected long-term demand for Tesla’s
vehicles will fall meaningfully below our estimates, leading to overcapacity,
or if FOCF will likely remain significantly negative for the foreseeable
future, causing liquidity to become insufficient. A downgrade may also occur if
additional debt funding needs arise or significant execution risks and cost
overruns materialize related to the company’s expansion of Model S into Europe
and Asia this year or the launch of its Model X in early 2015.
Though unlikely over the
next 12 months, we could raise the rating if a combination of higher demand for
Tesla’s product and operational cost reductions leads to a credible pathway for
positive free operating cash flow
(FOCF to debt approaching
5%), with leverage falling well below 6.5x and liquidity remains
“adequate.” We would also need to believe that the company’s improved
market position is sustainable.
有时间的时候我再来逐句分析上具体的methodology吧。。。
— 完 —
本文作者：知乎用户（登录查看详情）
【知乎日报】
你都看到这啦，快来点我嘛 Σ(▼□▼メ)
此问题还有 3 个回答，查看全部。
延伸阅读：
标普、穆迪等机构给各国主权评级有哪些依据？
信用评级机构有哪些用处？
